50801
It should not surprise most Ugandans that for the last six years of Museveni’s rule, political controversies have often turned violent and am sure Ugandans are likely to witness the disintegration of our country and continued ethnic tensions if Mr. Museveni’s policies remain unchanged.
We have all seen countries collapsing or disintegrating springing not only from political phenomenon but also from economic motives, from ethnic and racial conflict, from cultural and anthropological differences and individual personalities. For those of you who have been following events unfolding in Uganda more especially during Mr. Museveni’s rule will agree with me that all the above is what Uganda is today.
The condition I mostly fear is going to cause Uganda disintegrate is the power asymmetry. This is the unfavorable tilt in the distribution of power and to Ugandans this is not an opinion but a fact that needs to be addressed. Mr. Museveni has carefully kept disequilibrium of power between different communities and I have no doubt in my mind that this is going to invite aggression. The peace and stability of Uganda will only be kept if Mr Museveni can realize the need to match and relatively keep this power distribution even.
In all countries were civil strife has led to disintegration, accession and issues for conflict have always existed but the immediate cause of instability in these countries has always been failure to balance power distribution.
For those around Mr. Museveni Buganda seems to be seen as a threat to national stability due to its continued demand for federal and all what legally belongs to them but to most political analysts Buganda is a peace seeking community and peace remains its ultimate goal. The mengo establishment must have learned however that if peace is their goal they must prepare for war and this probably explains why Buganda takes tough stands against government today. Buganda probably knows that if what they demand for is granted Buganda and Uganda will absolutely attain peace and stability.
Today most parts of Uganda seem to be seeking a major redistribution of values and power while Mr. Museveni only seeks and wishes to preserve the current status quo and this is going to result into unrest and instability. The power imbalance has become inherently dangerous for Mr. Museveni’s government and that’s what explains his aggressive policies against those who seem to question it. Such imbalance has turned communities like Buganda who were earlier peace loving into being defensive as the only way of counteracting Museveni’s increased aggressive polices.
Mr. Museveni needs to know one thing that it’s not important at all times to balance this distribution of power perfectly and it’s not my argument but there are potential communities like Buganda whose demands can’t just be overlooked. It’s also important for Mr. Museveni to know and fully understand that the coast of overcoming resistance will outweigh the benefits and thus there must be urgent need to look into the concerns of Ugandans whenever they seem to differ with him.
Although Uganda has had prolonged periods of different tribes staying together many of these tribes today think of themselves as distinct and how they can benefit from political power. This feeling of distinct say among the Baganda or people from northern Uganda is likely to result into separatist movements and formal demands for secession to form a state or short of this extreme considerable measure of internal autonomy from control by the existing political order.
These separatists’ demands like the one I once heard Hon. Hussein kyanjo sound will be resisted by Mr. Museveni’s government because of the threat perceived over this political power and the result will be conflict or subsequent civil wars around the country. Mr. Museveni needs to know that these internal conflicts his government has created are going to become clients of outside sponsors motivated by their own interests in pretext of protecting these movements.
These foreign interventions will particularly become important when neighboring states allows their territories to be used as sanctuaries and staging areas for guerrilla forays and political organizations by the dissident populations like the Sudan once did for Joseph koney. This will definitely be seen by Mr. Museveni as subversion and will no doubt lead to intergovernmental conflicts.
Mr. Museveni the current status quo you’ve maintained is going to result into sudden and significant challenges to the status quo that is going to result from rapid internal developments. Whether these internal developments will be as a result of rapid social mobilization like what we witnessed during the Buganda riots, or sharp advances in national economic capabilities, it’s clear you’ll look at them as a challenge to the present status quo. I have no doubt in my mind that all this will result into conflict and wars will likely follow. There’s has been gradual discontents amongst many Ugandans but Mr. Museveni’s government has done less to address them and this creates fear in my mind that conflict might erupt at a revolutionary speed and his government won’t be able to contain it.
Mr. Museveni it’s very clear to me that your government’s capability in solving Uganda’s problems has declined and the same applies to your government’s power status and popularity. This has now become a problem to Uganda as it has increased your government’s misperceptions, miscalculations and over reactions even were its not called for. Your continued treatment of those who oppose your leadership with a repressive hand might trigger war or social conflicts that might cost Uganda more than any of us can anticipate.
Your government has slip in status and popularity and to me its decline is now detectable which requires you to urgently adjust internal conditions just before events reach the peak and before your own government begins to assent so that conflict, war and disintegration of Uganda can be avoided.
Although territorial issues of separations begin as ethic questions like Hon. Kyanjo’s demands were seen, they also entail profound economic issues. The economic regional imbalances museveni’s government has created can be seen by even a visiting tourist and this has been an issue of discontent amongst many Ugandans. If Mr. Museveni does not do a lot in addressing these economic imbalances which might even be too late, social unrest will remain the only means available to Ugandans to display their resentments. The secession of Biafra would not have taken from Nigeria not just the Ibo people but because of economic considerations like its national resource base.
Finally Mr. Museveni needs to pay much attention on what Ugandans perceive as relative deprivation. Most political rebellions become more likely when people believe that they are receiving less than their due. This felling rooms around most regions as people of these tribes fell they have been deprived of their due in favor of Mr. Museveni’s tribes men. We have occasionally seen members of parliament calling on heads of government bodies like the URA to provide lists of their employees and this emanates from general feelings amongst most Ugandans that Mr. Museveni’s government only favors people from his own region or tribes’ men as seen in the army ranks.
To most Ugandans this will lead to a need to achieve greater benefits or relieve the frustration of denial and as a result those who fill denied will turn to aggression or political violence and probably the result will be civil wars.
This differs from simple common sense in one important respect that the abject or absolute conditions of poverty and oppression do not lead directly to rebellion but rather the subjective or psychological response to these conditions is determinant. I have heard Mr. Museveni in his usual long speeches praising the recovery programs in northern Uganda but I must put it to him that the troubles are not yet over as most rebellions or violence mostly occurs when conditions are beginning to improve rather than when they are at their worst point.
The increased perception amongst those close to Mr. Museveni and Mr. Museveni himself to continuously perceive those who disagree with them through ideological lenses is going to further worsen the situation. I believe Uganda needs all sorts of views regardless of who holds them or regardless of such a person’s ideological inclinations. Mr. Museveni needs to know that prosecution, crackdown on media freedoms and all sorts of prompt up charges against those who hold different views from his own are all far from remedying the ills his government has caused to Ugandans.
All these issues I have highlighted are real and to all those who love our country we must face them as we come up with solutions so that we can preempt the rooming civil unrest and ethnic violence. The events that followed the Kenyan elections ought to have taught us one or two lessons.
Oppressive policies are the biggest liability in this era because we have failed to realize that while such policies were assets yesterday, yesterday is gone.
Hassan
It should not surprise most Ugandans that for the last six years of Museveni’s rule, political controversies have often turned violent and am sure Ugandans are likely to witness the disintegration of our country and continued ethnic tensions if Mr. Museveni’s policies remain unchanged.
We have all seen countries collapsing or disintegrating springing not only from political phenomenon but also from economic motives, from ethnic and racial conflict, from cultural and anthropological differences and individual personalities. For those of you who have been following events unfolding in Uganda more especially during Mr. Museveni’s rule will agree with me that all the above is what Uganda is today.
The condition I mostly fear is going to cause Uganda disintegrate is the power asymmetry. This is the unfavorable tilt in the distribution of power and to Ugandans this is not an opinion but a fact that needs to be addressed. Mr. Museveni has carefully kept disequilibrium of power between different communities and I have no doubt in my mind that this is going to invite aggression. The peace and stability of Uganda will only be kept if Mr Museveni can realize the need to match and relatively keep this power distribution even.
In all countries were civil strife has led to disintegration, accession and issues for conflict have always existed but the immediate cause of instability in these countries has always been failure to balance power distribution.
For those around Mr. Museveni Buganda seems to be seen as a threat to national stability due to its continued demand for federal and all what legally belongs to them but to most political analysts Buganda is a peace seeking community and peace remains its ultimate goal. The mengo establishment must have learned however that if peace is their goal they must prepare for war and this probably explains why Buganda takes tough stands against government today. Buganda probably knows that if what they demand for is granted Buganda and Uganda will absolutely attain peace and stability.
Today most parts of Uganda seem to be seeking a major redistribution of values and power while Mr. Museveni only seeks and wishes to preserve the current status quo and this is going to result into unrest and instability. The power imbalance has become inherently dangerous for Mr. Museveni’s government and that’s what explains his aggressive policies against those who seem to question it. Such imbalance has turned communities like Buganda who were earlier peace loving into being defensive as the only way of counteracting Museveni’s increased aggressive polices.
Mr. Museveni needs to know one thing that it’s not important at all times to balance this distribution of power perfectly and it’s not my argument but there are potential communities like Buganda whose demands can’t just be overlooked. It’s also important for Mr. Museveni to know and fully understand that the coast of overcoming resistance will outweigh the benefits and thus there must be urgent need to look into the concerns of Ugandans whenever they seem to differ with him.
Although Uganda has had prolonged periods of different tribes staying together many of these tribes today think of themselves as distinct and how they can benefit from political power. This feeling of distinct say among the Baganda or people from northern Uganda is likely to result into separatist movements and formal demands for secession to form a state or short of this extreme considerable measure of internal autonomy from control by the existing political order.
These separatists’ demands like the one I once heard Hon. Hussein kyanjo sound will be resisted by Mr. Museveni’s government because of the threat perceived over this political power and the result will be conflict or subsequent civil wars around the country. Mr. Museveni needs to know that these internal conflicts his government has created are going to become clients of outside sponsors motivated by their own interests in pretext of protecting these movements.
These foreign interventions will particularly become important when neighboring states allows their territories to be used as sanctuaries and staging areas for guerrilla forays and political organizations by the dissident populations like the Sudan once did for Joseph koney. This will definitely be seen by Mr. Museveni as subversion and will no doubt lead to intergovernmental conflicts.
Mr. Museveni the current status quo you’ve maintained is going to result into sudden and significant challenges to the status quo that is going to result from rapid internal developments. Whether these internal developments will be as a result of rapid social mobilization like what we witnessed during the Buganda riots, or sharp advances in national economic capabilities, it’s clear you’ll look at them as a challenge to the present status quo. I have no doubt in my mind that all this will result into conflict and wars will likely follow. There’s has been gradual discontents amongst many Ugandans but Mr. Museveni’s government has done less to address them and this creates fear in my mind that conflict might erupt at a revolutionary speed and his government won’t be able to contain it.
Mr. Museveni it’s very clear to me that your government’s capability in solving Uganda’s problems has declined and the same applies to your government’s power status and popularity. This has now become a problem to Uganda as it has increased your government’s misperceptions, miscalculations and over reactions even were its not called for. Your continued treatment of those who oppose your leadership with a repressive hand might trigger war or social conflicts that might cost Uganda more than any of us can anticipate.
Your government has slip in status and popularity and to me its decline is now detectable which requires you to urgently adjust internal conditions just before events reach the peak and before your own government begins to assent so that conflict, war and disintegration of Uganda can be avoided.
Although territorial issues of separations begin as ethic questions like Hon. Kyanjo’s demands were seen, they also entail profound economic issues. The economic regional imbalances museveni’s government has created can be seen by even a visiting tourist and this has been an issue of discontent amongst many Ugandans. If Mr. Museveni does not do a lot in addressing these economic imbalances which might even be too late, social unrest will remain the only means available to Ugandans to display their resentments. The secession of Biafra would not have taken from Nigeria not just the Ibo people but because of economic considerations like its national resource base.
Finally Mr. Museveni needs to pay much attention on what Ugandans perceive as relative deprivation. Most political rebellions become more likely when people believe that they are receiving less than their due. This felling rooms around most regions as people of these tribes fell they have been deprived of their due in favor of Mr. Museveni’s tribes men. We have occasionally seen members of parliament calling on heads of government bodies like the URA to provide lists of their employees and this emanates from general feelings amongst most Ugandans that Mr. Museveni’s government only favors people from his own region or tribes’ men as seen in the army ranks.
To most Ugandans this will lead to a need to achieve greater benefits or relieve the frustration of denial and as a result those who fill denied will turn to aggression or political violence and probably the result will be civil wars.
This differs from simple common sense in one important respect that the abject or absolute conditions of poverty and oppression do not lead directly to rebellion but rather the subjective or psychological response to these conditions is determinant. I have heard Mr. Museveni in his usual long speeches praising the recovery programs in northern Uganda but I must put it to him that the troubles are not yet over as most rebellions or violence mostly occurs when conditions are beginning to improve rather than when they are at their worst point.
The increased perception amongst those close to Mr. Museveni and Mr. Museveni himself to continuously perceive those who disagree with them through ideological lenses is going to further worsen the situation. I believe Uganda needs all sorts of views regardless of who holds them or regardless of such a person’s ideological inclinations. Mr. Museveni needs to know that prosecution, crackdown on media freedoms and all sorts of prompt up charges against those who hold different views from his own are all far from remedying the ills his government has caused to Ugandans.
All these issues I have highlighted are real and to all those who love our country we must face them as we come up with solutions so that we can preempt the rooming civil unrest and ethnic violence. The events that followed the Kenyan elections ought to have taught us one or two lessons.
Oppressive policies are the biggest liability in this era because we have failed to realize that while such policies were assets yesterday, yesterday is gone.
Hassan
